U.S. Home Sales to Remain Limited Through 2027
Buyers and sellers should plan for continued inventory shortages and high interest rates as market volume stays constrained.
Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Residential
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Goldman Sachs projects 3.9 million existing home sales in 2027 as high mortgage rates continue to constrain the national housing market. This forecast arrives as recent data shows sales activity remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Why it matters
The persistent gap between existing low-rate mortgages and current market rates continues to discourage homeowners from selling, keeping inventory tight. This dynamic helps maintain higher home prices even as total sales volume struggles to rebound.
Existing-home sales reached an annualized pace of 3.99 million in September 2026, a 2.2 percent decline from the previous year. Meanwhile, the median home sale price rose 1.3 percent to $417,500.
The players
Goldman Sachs
A global financial institution that provides economic research and market forecasts to guide investment and housing market analysis.
The details
Homeowners currently holding low-interest mortgages are choosing to stay in their properties rather than taking on new loans at significantly higher market rates. With 30-year fixed mortgage rates reaching 7.40 percent as of October 15, 2026, this 'lock-in' effect severely limits the supply of available homes for purchase. First-time buyers, who made up 31 percent of sales in September, face a challenging market where high interest rates and limited inventory keep prices elevated.
Timeline
5.34 million existing-home sales were recorded in 2019.
The mortgage rate gap averaged 2.54 percentage points in Q2 2024.
Millennial first-time buyer shares were measured from July 2024 through June 2025.
Existing-home sales hit an annualized pace of 3.99 million in September 2026.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40 percent on October 15, 2026.
The Home Front
The current housing market reflects the persistent influence of the lock-in effect associated with legacy low-rate mortgage portfolios. This trend continues to suppress existing inventory and keeps home sale volumes well below pre-pandemic levels.
If you are considering a move, prepare for limited housing inventory and higher financing costs until market conditions shift. Review your household budget to determine if current mortgage rates align with your long-term financial goals.
The takeaway
Housing turnover remains limited as owners with older, lower-rate loans avoid trading up in the current interest rate environment. Prospective buyers should focus on long-term affordability and consult with a licensed mortgage professional to understand their specific purchasing power.
Further reading
Learn more about local market shifts in the United States Residential section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
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