Global Hydrocarbon Demand Poised to Grow Through 2036
While electric vehicle sales surge in China, energy experts anticipate rising demand for hydrocarbons over the next decade.
Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Electric Vehicles
Live Poll
Will global demand for traditional hydrocarbons continue to grow over the next decade?
Global hydrocarbon demand is projected to climb over the next decade despite shifts in how nations consume energy. In China, electric vehicle adoption has surged, with EVs accounting for nearly six in ten new car sales between February and May 2026.
Why it matters
The transition to electric vehicles in major markets like China highlights a complex global energy shift where increased electrification often still relies on coal-produced electricity. This dynamic is influencing how international markets balance the demand for hydrocarbons with new energy technologies.
Electric vehicles accounted for nearly six in ten new car sales in China between February and May 2026, representing a 10-point increase in market share. Experts project that global hydrocarbon demand will continue to grow over the next 10 years.
The players
Ben Marshall
As the CEO of Vitol Americas, he oversees a major player in the global energy trading market.
Vitol Americas
A global energy trading firm that monitors international market fluctuations and hydrocarbon demand.
The details
China is increasingly shifting its energy consumption toward electrons produced by coal rather than relying on direct hydrocarbon combustion. This pivot has accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles, a trend exacerbated by global energy crises and trade flow disruptions following the 2022 Ukraine war. While this shift alters the energy mix, global demand for hydrocarbons is still expected to rise over the coming decade.
Timeline
Early 2022: Energy trade flows were disrupted by the start of the war in Ukraine.
February to May 2026: Electric vehicles captured nearly 60 percent of new car sales in China.
October 21, 2026: Ben Marshall discussed energy demand forecasts at the Dow Jones Energy Forum.
The Home Front
This trend reflects the broader international movement toward electrifying transport as nations seek to reduce reliance on imported hydrocarbons. It marks a significant shift in energy infrastructure that influences utility costs and fuel demand for households worldwide.
As global energy demands shift, homeowners should monitor how their local electricity providers are diversifying their power sources. Families considering an EV purchase should evaluate their home's existing electrical capacity for potential charging station installations.
The takeaway
The rise of electric vehicles in China is reshaping how energy is consumed globally, though traditional fuels remain in high demand. Keep an eye on regional electricity rates and energy policy shifts that could impact your household utility costs in the coming decade.
Further reading
Learn more about the latest trends in the Electric Vehicles market.
Live Poll
Will global demand for traditional hydrocarbons continue to grow over the next decade?
