EV Depreciation Estimates Have Been Overstated
New data suggests used electric vehicle values track closely with gas cars, potentially lowering your future lease costs.
Updated on Oct. 4, 2026 in Electric Vehicles
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An analysis from Transport & Environment found that the reported depreciation gap between electric and combustion vehicles narrowed significantly when accounting for subsidies and taxes. This adjustment suggests leasing firms may have inflated estimated depreciation rates to set higher monthly payments for consumers.
Why it matters
Leasing companies often set monthly rates based on projected resale values, meaning overstating depreciation keeps costs artificially high for drivers. When EV depreciation is correctly measured, it aligns with standard gas-powered vehicle market fluctuations.
The adjusted depreciation gap reflects an 80% reduction from initial estimates. Certified EVs currently sell for 1.4% more at resale and move 2.7 days faster than comparable models.
The players
Transport & Environment
An advocacy group focused on sustainable transport policy and monitoring European fleet electrification targets.
Arval
A fleet management and leasing company that provides battery health certification for electric vehicles.
The details
Analysts recalculated values by normalizing for subsidies, acquisition taxes, inflation, fleet composition, and new-EV price shifts. The report highlights that price volatility for used EVs mirrored gas-powered vehicles throughout 2025. Furthermore, independent verification tools, such as the 30,000 battery health certificates distributed by Arval, help stabilize these resale values by providing proof of battery condition.
Timeline
The data period for the analyzed used-car transactions occurred throughout 2025.
The Transport & Environment analysis was published on October 4, 2026.
The Home Front
This analysis challenges long-standing assumptions about electric vehicle residual values that have historically impacted consumer financing. It signals a shift in how the industry accounts for depreciation relative to the European Union fleet electrification targets.
If you are currently shopping for a lease, ask your dealer for clarity on how battery health is certified to ensure you are getting a fair residual value. You should also compare multiple lease quotes, as discrepancies in how firms project depreciation can lead to significantly different monthly payments.
The takeaway
The gap in depreciation between gas and electric vehicles is smaller than often reported, suggesting consumers may be overpaying on leases. When evaluating a used or leased EV, verify the battery health status to ensure you are paying for an accurately valued vehicle.
Further reading
For more insight into how market trends affect your ownership costs, see our Electric Vehicles section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Cool Down.
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Do you trust that electric vehicle leasing costs are fairly priced based on actual resale values?
